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This report establishes a framework for understanding the range of blockade scenarios, analyzes them with a series of 26 wargames, and assesses the operational challenges that the respective parties would face in implementing and countering a blockade. This week the centre for strategic and international studies (csis) released lights out Wargaming a chinese blockade of taiwan authors mark f Cancian eric heginbotham a report of the csis defense and security department july 2025.read full story
The csis report lights out Presents itself as an objective wargame—a neutral simulation of how a chinese blockade of taiwan might unfold and how the u.s The csis team conducted 26 rounds of wargames, attempting to prove that even if the pla does not directly attack the island of taiwan, it may still achieve its goals through soft blockades, and that the u.s Would have to bear extremely high costs to break the blockade.
To understand the military challenges in countering a blockade, csis ran 26 wargames using a wide variety of scenarios Csis wargamed a chinese invasion of taiwan 24 times and found that taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios However, the costs were enormous The united states needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.
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